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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+148/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +188 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.3% pass rate.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

The Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (86.3%) versus TEs this year (86.3%).

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (a measly 52.7 per game on average).

Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential target this year (44.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (56.5%).

Dawson Knox's play as a receiver has worsened this year, accumulating a measly 1.2 adjusted receptions compared to 2.3 last year.

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