Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New England defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to pass rush.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Dawson Knox's 59.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 74.5% figure.

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