My Account Log Out

reorder

Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.

Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The New England defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to pass rush.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.

Dawson Knox's 59.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 74.5% figure.

More Dawson Knox Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™