Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-174/+126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +129 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Jaguars defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Dawson Knox's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 27.4.
Dawson Knox's play as a receiver has declined this season, averaging just 2.0 adjusted catches compared to 3.2 last season.
Dawson Knox's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 74.5% to 67.5%.

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