Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 69.2% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 81.9% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 4.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox has been among the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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