Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 71.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to earn 4.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (67.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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