Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 6:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 76.0% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (67.8%) to tight ends this year (67.8%).
The New England Patriots safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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