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Dawson Knox
NFL · Player Props
Dawson Knox
TE · Buffalo Bills
Receptions
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022 Updated Jan 8, 2023 6:11 PM UTC
NFL Props Dawson Knox Receptions

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -168.

Favors Over
  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
  • Dawson Knox has run a route on 76.0% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Favors Under
  • The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
  • The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (67.8%) to tight ends this year (67.8%).
  • The New England Patriots safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
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