Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 5.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging a terrific 3.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential target this year (71.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.0%).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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