Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-146/+114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Dawson Knox has gone out for fewer passes this year (70.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.0%).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.8%) to TEs this year (60.8%).
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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