Dawson Knox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+138/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Dawson Knox has been among the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 2.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (68.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (84.0%).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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