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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Bills as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.

With an exceptional 61.7% Snap% (79th percentile) this year, Dawson Knox places among the running backs with the highest volume in the league.

Dawson Knox has received a colossal 8.2% of his team's air yards this year: 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the predictive model to run just 61.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 53.8 per game on average).

The Lions defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to TEs this year.

This year, the formidable Detroit Lions defense has yielded a paltry 64.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Lions safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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