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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

While Dawson Knox has received 7.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo's passing attack this week at 12.0%.

Dawson Knox has received a staggering 9.7% of his team's air yards this year: 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.

When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

Dawson Knox's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 64.8% to 69.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.

The model projects the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.8 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.

The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 54.2 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.

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