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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Bills to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.

In this contest, Dawson Knox is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets.

The predictive model expects Dawson Knox to be a more important option in his offense's air attack in this week's contest (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.5% in games he has played).

Dawson Knox's receiving efficiency has gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.21 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 5.91 figure last year.

This year, the anemic Chiefs defense has surrendered a massive 68.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are predicted by the projections to run only 62.1 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 53.9 per game on average).

Dawson Knox checks in as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching just 66.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 13th percentile.

When it comes to defensive tackles rushing the passer, Kansas City's group of DTs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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