Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
When talking about air yards, Dawson Knox grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a whopping 28.0 per game.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
This year, the deficient Patriots defense has conceded a whopping 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Dawson Knox has compiled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
Dawson Knox's 59.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 74.5% figure.
Dawson Knox's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating just 4.19 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.95 figure last year.

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