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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -122.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
  • Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • When talking about air yards, Dawson Knox grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a whopping 28.0 per game.
  • The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • This year, the deficient Patriots defense has conceded a whopping 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • Dawson Knox has compiled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
  • Dawson Knox's 59.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 74.5% figure.
  • Dawson Knox's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating just 4.19 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.95 figure last year.

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