Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:56 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 66.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.
In this week's contest, Dawson Knox is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Giants pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are a massive favorite by 15.5 points.
The projections expect the Bills to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Giants, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.
After accruing 33.0 air yards per game last year, Dawson Knox has seen a big decrease this year, currently boasting 25.0 per game.
Dawson Knox has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (34.0).

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