Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
The Bills O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
This year, the weak Jaguars defense has been gouged for the 5th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a staggering 7.83 YAC.
The Jaguars defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Dawson Knox has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (17.0 per game) than he did last year (33.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 27.4.
Dawson Knox's 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a a meaningful diminishment in his receiving talent over last season's 34.0 mark.

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