Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Dawson Knox has compiled a whopping 27.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among tight ends.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown weak efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 7.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
Dawson Knox has gone out for fewer passes this year (60.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (75.9%).
Dawson Knox has accumulated significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
Dawson Knox's 62.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a significant diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 74.5% mark.
Dawson Knox's 5.1 adjusted yards per target this year marks an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last year's 8.0 figure.

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