Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In regards to air yards, Dawson Knox grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among tight ends this year, accruing a monstrous 28.0 per game.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
The Chiefs pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.36 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are projected by the predictive model to run just 64.3 total plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.
Dawson Knox's 63.6% Route Participation% this season marks a noteworthy reduction in his passing game volume over last season's 75.9% figure.
Dawson Knox's 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects an impressive decline in his receiving talent over last year's 34.0 figure.
Dawson Knox's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 74.5% to 58.1%.