Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (65.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has put up far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).

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