Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to notch 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (62.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has notched quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has totaled many fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).
Dawson Knox's receiving efficiency has declined this year, averaging a mere 6.72 yards-per-target compared to a 8.90 rate last year.

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