Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (61.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 6.42 yards-per-target vs a 8.90 rate last season.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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