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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.

Dawson Knox has run a route on 81.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Dawson Knox's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, averaging a mere 7.31 yards-per-target vs a 8.90 rate last year.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.39 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.

The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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