Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.1% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Dawson Knox has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Dawson Knox's pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, notching just 8.00 yards-per-target vs a 9.39 figure last season.

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