Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 4.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (52.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
Dawson Knox has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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