Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to garner 4.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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