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Dawson Knox
NFL · Player Props
Dawson Knox
TE · Buffalo Bills
Receiving Yards
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022 Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:41 PM EST
NFL Props Dawson Knox Receiving Yards

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -130.

Favors Over
  • The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to garner 4.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Favors Under
  • The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Dawson Knox has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
  • Dawson Knox's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.
  • The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
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