Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 71.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accrue 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Dawson Knox has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (72.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has posted many fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Dawson Knox's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling just 7.91 yards-per-target compared to a 9.39 figure last season.
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) versus TEs this year.

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