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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-140/+110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to total 5.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among TEs.

Dawson Knox has notched a whopping 33.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.

Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential target this year (71.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.0%).

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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