Dawson Knox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (+111/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 7th-most receiving yards per game in the league (60.0) vs. TEs this year.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (68.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (84.0%).
Dawson Knox has compiled far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).

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