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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-410).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +254 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +252.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Dawson Knox ranks in the 88th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.

The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line has given their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Dawson Knox has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).

Dawson Knox's 23.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 29.6.

The New York Jets defense has allowed the least TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.00 per game this year.

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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