Dawson Knox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-361).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +232 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Buffalo Bills O-line has allowed their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have utilized play action on 33.7% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Dawson Knox has put up far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 22.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 29.6.

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