Dawson Knox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (11.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.7% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 4th-most passing TDs in the NFL to TEs: 0.60 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Dawson Knox has notched quite a few less air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (37.0 per game).
Dawson Knox's 23.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 29.6.
Dawson Knox grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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