Dawson Knox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-278).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +226 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.4 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
Dawson Knox has totaled a monstrous 35.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox's 28.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 81st percentile for tight ends.
Dawson Knox ranks in the 95th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.47 per game.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.