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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+307/-551).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -522 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -551.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line has allowed their QB 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Buffalo Bills have used play action on 33.7% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

Dawson Knox has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).

Dawson Knox's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 30.9.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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