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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-415).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +254 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +252.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Dawson Knox has totaled a colossal 31.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.

Dawson Knox's 25.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 76th percentile for tight ends.

Dawson Knox's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 74.1% to 78.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.9%) to TEs this year (64.9%).

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 7th-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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