Dawson Knox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Dawson Knox

NFL · Player Props

Dawson Knox

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Dawson Knox has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.5% this year, which puts him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Dawson Knox has notched a whopping 33.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among tight ends.
Dawson Knox's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for TEs.
Dawson Knox's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.3% to 77.7%.

Favors Under

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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