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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+249/-405).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +291 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +249.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Dawson Knox has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.2% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile among tight ends.

Dawson Knox grades out in the 82nd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.29 per game.

The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (78%) versus TEs this year (78.0%).

The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 9th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.50 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Dawson Knox has compiled far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (37.0 per game).

Dawson Knox's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 29.6.

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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