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Dawson Knox

Dawson Knox Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +261 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.

The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Dawson Knox has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 6th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.24 per game since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

More Dawson Knox Player Props

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