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Davis Mills

Davis Mills TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to use backup QB Davis Mills.

The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The Houston Texans offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.94 seconds per snap.

This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a massive 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Titans linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 55.7% of their chances: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Right now, the 5th-least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (52.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.

In this week's game, Davis Mills is projected by the model to wind up with the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 33.6.

Davis Mills is positioned as one of the worst precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 60.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 12th percentile.

The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.08 per game this year.

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