Davis Mills TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to use backup QB Davis Mills.
The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The Houston Texans offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.94 seconds per snap.
This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a massive 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-biggest rate in the NFL.
The Titans linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 55.7% of their chances: the 11th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the 5th-least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (52.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.
In this week's game, Davis Mills is projected by the model to wind up with the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 33.6.
Davis Mills is positioned as one of the worst precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 60.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 12th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.08 per game this year.

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