Davis Mills TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

My Account Log Out

reorder

Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-275/+210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Davis Mills's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.1% to 60.7%.

More Davis Mills Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow