Davis Mills TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a giant 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in the league vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (73.0%).
The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the 2nd-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.79 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 24.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Davis Mills's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 61.7%.

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