Davis Mills TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -177 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are an enormous 17.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Davis Mills's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 61.4%.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 6th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.17 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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