Davis Mills TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Davis Mills's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.1% to 62.1%.

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