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Davis Mills

Davis Mills TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Davis Mills TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+164/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 2nd-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.88 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.

The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in football against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (67.4%).

The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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