Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the league (42.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Texans.
The Houston Texans offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.94 seconds per snap.
The model projects Davis Mills to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this week's game (8.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's unit has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to use backup QB Davis Mills.
The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
This week, Davis Mills is forecasted by the projection model to garner the 5th-fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 2.3.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the influence it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league last year.
This year, the anemic Titans run defense has conceded a colossal 4.00 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 26th-worst rate in football.

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