Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-106/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
The Las Vegas Raiders safeties grade out as the 30th-worst group of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 34.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to accumulate 1.2 carries this week, on average: the least of all QBs.

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