Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to accrue 1.3 carries this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Davis Mills has generated just 0.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (3rd percentile).

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