Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding 4.94 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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