Davis Mills Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.

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