Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 4, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 218.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 211.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 69.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Davis Mills has been among the least effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 6.30 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 14th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the lowest rate in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (63.0%).
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.06 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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