Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Davis Mills

NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 227.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 230.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 227.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 6th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Davis Mills has passed for many more yards per game (224.0) this year than he did last year (198.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.7 plays per game.
Davis Mills has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a measly 6.50 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 20th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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