Davis Mills Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Davis Mills

QB · Houston Texans

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (+111/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 230.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 232.5 @ +111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Davis Mills has been among the least effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging just 6.20 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.