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Davis Mills Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (+111/-148).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 230.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 232.5 @ +111.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).The Texans are a huge 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Davis Mills has been among the least effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging just 6.20 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.The Houston Texans have used motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
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